INTELLIGENCE THURSDAY: Ukraine Has No More Defense Against Russian Ballistic Missiles
Your weekly window into our network of experts
Six voices from our network:
Deborah Fairlamb on anxiety in Kyiv after a night in which nothing was intercepted
Bob Seely on Russia's real strategy
Maksym Eristavi on the interceptor arithmetic
Shaun Pinner on what follows if Ukraine falls
John Foreman on the West's false donor mentality, and
Benjamin Wolba on who is building Europe's answer to undemocratic threats.
AMERICAN INVESTOR IN KYIV
1. Kyiv Is Running Out of Interceptors. The Anxiety Is Rising. But the Defiance Isn’t Falling.
Deborah Fairlamb is a founding partner at Green Flag Ventures in Kyiv. She co-hosts our Coalition of the Doing podcast. From Kyiv hours after the latest Russian missile assault, she describes the scary, stark reality and the still against-the-odds hopeful mood:
“I have a little bit of anxiety in terms of how is Ukraine going to weather this?… Last night, 17 people were killed. And I think that is the highest number I had seen from a particular ballistic hit… What [Russia is] trying to do is to make it bad enough that the Ukrainians are going to throw up their hands and say, ‘Stop, we give up.’ It’s not going to happen. I mean, it is just not going to happen.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: Russia fired 24 ballistic missiles at Kyiv overnight. Ukraine's air force shot down 98 of 115 drones but—and this is the scary detail—not one missile. Seventeen killed, 44 wounded. Fairlamb joined us from Kyiv hours later.
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BRITISH VETERAN AND FORMER MP
2. Russia’s Strategy: Hold the Line, Make Life Hell, Break the Link
Bob Seely is a British Army veteran, a former Member of Parliament, and the author of The New Total War. Queen Elizabeth II awarded him an MBE. He is building a defense company in Ukraine. From our Coalition of the Doing podcast:
“At the moment, the Russian strategy is pretty bluntly, hold the line, make life hell, break the link… The Russian idea of warfare, even in a conventional war, the main battle space is in the mind. That’s why the Russians keep threatening nuclear war, because they want to scare Western public opinion into pressuring their politicians not to support Ukraine… As long as Putin’s in power, he is on the war path. He’s going to fight a conflict against the collective West.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: A Russian Kh-101 flew roughly 95 kilometres into Polish territory last week and crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia. Such provocations are increasing in Europe, while Russia tries to break a Kyiv made naked by the lack of anti-ballistic interceptors. Ukraine is not alone in this vulnerability: America is also low on supply, not because of Ukraine but because of Iran.
CHRONICLER OF RUSSIAN COLONIALISM
3. The Arithmetic Nobody Wants to Do: America Is Under-defended, and Kyiv Could Fix It
Maksym Eristavi is a Ukrainian journalist and the author of Russian Colonialism 101. He spoke on our Coalition of the Doing podcast:
“This morning I was reading statistics on how many interceptors the whole free world combined produces a month and it’s I think around 60. And Russia alone produces over 100 in the same month… And then you add North Korea… Then you add China. We’re already several times behind even on monthly base production level… So why not allow Ukraine to produce at the scale we absolutely cannot produce and cover us all in the end? It just completely escapes me, this logic… We’re already running behind on such a horrific math on even protecting ourselves.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: Last week Trump appeared to backtrack on a promise to grant Kyiv a licence to produce Patriot interceptors domestically.
SURVIVOR OF MARIUPOL AND RUSSIAN CAPTIVITY
4. If Ukraine Falls, Europe Fights Ukraine’s Conscripts
Shaun Pinner is a British Army veteran who became a Ukrainian Marine, fought through the siege of Mariupol, and survived Russian captivity before being exchanged. From Sam Cook's Ukrainian Military History Podcast:
“Putin’s not going to stop. He’s going to keep going. And then if he wins in Ukraine, he’s going to forcibly conscript all the fighting [men]. And [then Ukrainians] will be fighting for Russia… They will turn these forcibly conscripted fighting-age males onto Europe if they succeeded. So this war needs to be finished here.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: Many in Europe are complacent or confused about what is happening in Ukraine. They don’t realize how much worse it could be, were it not for the Ukrainians who hold the line.
BRITAIN'S FORMER DEFENCE ATTACHÉ IN MOSCOW
5. Stop Calling It Aid. Ukraine Is Teaching Us How to Survive.
John Foreman was the UK's Defence Attaché to the Russian Federation from 2019 to 2022, advising ministers on Russian military affairs and representing the UK Chief of the Defence Staff to the Russian General Staff. From Jonathan Fink's Silicon Curtain podcast:
“When I was in Ukraine… [I was struck by] how much Ukraine has learned across society — civilian, military, energy resilience, decentralization, production on the frontline, logistics, evacuation, huge numbers of areas. And it strikes me that the mentality of some people in the West is this donor mentality: we give them aid to help out these people. But we have to realize how much Ukraine can help us improve our own resilience and military effectiveness.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: The US held more than 2,300 Patriot interceptors before America’s war with Iran began on 28 February; the figure is now around 800, against domestic production of roughly 600 a year.
FOUNDER OF EUROPE'S DEFENSE TECH HACKATHONS
6. European Elites Can’t Build Fast Enough. He’s Assembling the People Who Will.
Benjamin Wolba, a physicist and former VC, co-founded the European Defense Tech Hub for the defense of Europe. The EDTH has had more than forty free events across Europe in two years. From our Coalition of the Doing podcast:
“As we ran our first few hackathons in ‘24, people were like, ‘Oh, that’s cute. You’re running hackathons.’ Isn’t that where students build these cute little prototypes?… We hosted our very first hackathon in June ‘24 by accident, just for fun… And then we saw that people actually kept going. In a matter of one year we saw two acquisitions happening. We saw ballpark 10 out of 34 projects actually continue, build real stuff in real life.”
➡️ THE NEWS ANGLE: More than 1,000 founders, engineers, soldiers and investors head to an airfield outside Berlin on 20 August.
The missed angle
Ukraine’s low death tolls in cities after missile attacks were always a mirage. The tolls will catch up soon.
For years the media has taken an easy but irresponsible approach to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities: put the fatality count in the headline.
We have always opposed this, because it obscured the thing the West most needed to understand. As long as Ukraine had the interceptors to stop Russian ballistic missiles, the death toll after even the most intense attack was going to be low. That was never resilience. It was air defense. And the moment the supply ran short, the number was always going to climb.
Low death tolls made for reassuring headlines, and reassuring headlines made for complacency. Now it is not two or three dead but dozens, on a regular basis. It is likely to get worse.
How we tell the story matters.
The Burning Question
Why won’t the West let Ukraine build the interceptors we all need?
Has the West waited too long on its own air defense? Ukraine has proved it can build faster and cheaper than almost anyone, and it is still not permitted to produce the interceptors that would cover Ukraine—and the rest of us.
Why not?
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UFN Daily Notebook—
What else we’re watching today:
Russia Brings FPV “Safari” Strikes Into Zaporizhzhia—Russian forces are increasingly using FPV drones to hunt civilian vehicles, public transport, and people in Zaporizhzhia, extending frontline tactics into a major industrial city. Local officials say defenses stop more than 95% of incoming drones, but several can still break through on difficult days. Authorities are testing shatter-resistant windows and drone-warning systems for bus drivers, while businesses close or lose customers under constant surveillance from above.
Russia does not need to occupy Zaporizhzhia to degrade ordinary life there. It is pushing the psychological and economic effects of the front line deep into the city.
Washington Turns the Intelligence Back On—U.S.–Ukrainian intelligence cooperation appears to have returned close to the level that existed before Washington briefly suspended sharing in March 2025, with senior senators from both parties pointing to stronger communication and more effective Ukrainian operations. American intelligence has sharpened Kyiv’s long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure while continuing to provide early warning of incoming missile attacks. This is among Washington’s cheapest, highest-leverage forms of support: satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and targeting data make Ukrainian-built drones and missiles considerably more effective without deploying American troops or drawing further on depleted U.S. munitions.
The exchange also runs both ways, as Ukraine possesses unusually detailed intelligence on Russia and its assistance to Iran.
Patriots Promised, Interceptors Missing—Ukraine says allied deliveries of air-defense interceptors have fallen to roughly one-third of their 2025 level, leaving its cities increasingly exposed as Russia expands ballistic-missile production and intensifies strikes ahead of winter. The shortage was brutally apparent when Ukrainian defenses failed to stop any of the 24 ballistic and four Zircon missiles fired in a recent barrage.
Competing demand from the Middle East has exposed the West’s deeper problem: years of lean procurement created sophisticated systems without the industrial capacity or stockpiles needed for sustained war.
Can Ukraine Build America’s Scarce Interceptors?—U.S. officials are continuing talks on Patriot co-production with Ukraine despite President Trump’s public hesitation about transferring sensitive missile technology. Options include manufacturing selected PAC-3 components in Ukraine for final assembly in Germany or involving Ukrainian industry in Lockheed Martin’s cheaper ACE interceptor now under development. Protecting advanced American technology is a legitimate concern, particularly when Ukrainian factories remain under Russian attack, but permanent dependence on depleted U.S. stockpiles is hardly a strategy.
A carefully compartmentalized production agreement could expand NATO’s industrial base, give Ukraine a more reliable supply, and distribute manufacturing across Europe without surrendering the system’s most sensitive secrets.
Ukraine Returns to Russia’s Refining Giant—Ukrainian drones again reached the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, igniting at least one fire despite Russia claiming to have intercepted 92 aircraft during its largest drone attack on the region to date.
The Rosneft–Gazprom Neft facility processes roughly 15 million metric tons of crude annually, or about 300,000 barrels per day, making it one of Russia’s five largest refineries and an important producer of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
Moscow’s Shadow War Targets a German Drone Maker—German domestic intelligence believes Russian operatives were preparing to assassinate Stefan Thumann, head of Bavarian drone manufacturer Donaustahl, which supplies reconnaissance and strike drones to Ukraine. Investigators say two Russian disposable operatives photographed Thumann’s home, monitored his family, and surveilled company premises between December 2025 and March 2026. The most troubling detail is institutional: German police initially detained the first suspect but released him before completing analysis of his phones, allowing him to flee to Spain while the surveillance continued.
After the suspected plot against Rheinmetall chief Armin Papperger, the case suggests Moscow is systematically targeting the people behind Europe’s rearmament, using inexpensive, disposable recruits to bring its shadow war inside NATO territory.
Who Will Control the Strait of Hormuz?—President Trump says an all-day negotiation with Iran produced “very good discussions” and predicted that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon, while warning Tehran of renewed heavy strikes if diplomacy fails.
Iran, however, denies holding direct talks with Washington, and the emerging Oman-mediated proposal appears favorable to Tehran: inbound shipping could pass under Iranian control, possible transit fees remain under discussion, and arrangements for outbound traffic are unresolved.
Taiwan Tests the Ukrainian Lesson of Fighting Without Central Control—Taiwan has begun its ten-day Han Kuang exercise with its largest reserve mobilization to date, urban resilience drills, simulated internet disruption, and new command methods designed to make frontline units more autonomous. The military is testing whether formations can continue operating when communications with higher headquarters are degraded—a central lesson from Ukraine’s war. More than 5,000 reservists are participating, alongside newly delivered M1A2T Abrams tanks.
Taiwan is no longer treating a Chinese attack solely as a naval and air-force problem. The exercise assumes cyber disruption, gray-zone pressure, urban fighting, and the need for civilians and local commanders to function without constant central direction.
Beijing Finds a $10 Russian Discount—China’s state-owned Sinopec has sharply increased purchases of Russian ESPO crude as Middle Eastern supplies tighten, booking an estimated 30 to 40 cargoes—roughly 241,000 to 320,000 barrels per day—for delivery between July and September. With Saudi shipments falling and Russian oil trading as much as $10 per barrel below alternatives from Oman or Brazil, Beijing is choosing the cheapest secure supply available, paying through intermediaries in yuan and avoiding sanctioned Russian entities.
The trade is energy realism in its purest form: China gains discounted, short-haul crude, while Moscow converts Middle Eastern instability into revenue for its war economy.
Saab Helps Take the Pilot Out of ZIRKA—Ukrainian developer NOCTIS is working with Sweden’s Saab to push its ZIRKA interceptor toward a largely autonomous air-defense system capable of flying to an engagement zone, finding, identifying, and destroying a target with minimal operator input. Saab’s exact contribution remains undisclosed, although its Giraffe radar family was specifically mentioned, suggesting a future sensor-to-interceptor link. ZIRKA already automates detection, acquisition, tracking, and terminal guidance.
The operator currently adjusts only its closing speed. The $2,000 drone can reach 340 kilometers per hour, operate within a 30-kilometer radius, and has reportedly destroyed a jet-powered Shahed.
Can European Chips Outsmart Russian Jamming?—Estonian-Ukrainian DoD Solution is partnering with Dutch chipmaker Axelera AI to place more computing power directly aboard autonomous drones, beginning with high-speed interceptors. Axelera’s Metis M.2 accelerator will be integrated into DoD Solution’s AURA platform, allowing sensor processing, target recognition, tracking, navigation, and terminal guidance to happen within milliseconds without depending on GPS or a reliable data link.
That is increasingly decisive in Ukraine’s electronic-warfare environment, where a drone tethered to remote computing can become useless the moment communications disappear.
The Ground Drone That Can Lose Half Its Tracks—The most useful feature on a battlefield robot may be its ability to limp home. Ukraine’s new Volcan logistics UGV uses four independently powered tracks and can reportedly continue moving after losing two, provided the surviving tracks are on opposite sides. It reaches at least 15 kilometers per hour and has a stated range of 100 kilometers on compacted ground, while Starlink, LTE, and ELRS provide several options for remote control and video transmission. The suspensionless chassis is also intended to serve as a stable base for future weapons modules.
Volcan arrives as ground robots assume an expanding share of resupply and evacuation missions across Ukraine’s widening drone kill zone, where sending a truck and driver forward can be an expensive gamble.
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